The Three Types of Lines
In general, you’ll see three different types of lines on RunGoodProps:
- Exact Lines — these are plays where the lines match exactly at the sportsbook and the prop site. For example, Steph Curry 3PTs is 5.5 on PrizePicks and also 5.5 (-150) on Pinnacle. They match, so we remove the juice and calculate the probability. You can filter for only these lines by creating a filter that says “Favorable Lines is No” and “Push Potential is No”.
- Favorable Lines — these happen when lines from the prop sites compared to the sportsbooks do not match. For example, Steph Curry 3PTs is 5.5 on PrizePicks but it’s 6.5 (-120 on the over) on Pinnacle. These are plays where a certain side is favored and you’re getting a better line to make the outcome even more likely.
- Push Potential Lines — these are lines from sportsbooks that are worse than the line being offered on the prop site but with heavy juice back in the direction towards the prop site line. For example, Steph Curry 3PTs is 5.0 on PrizePicks but it’s 4.5 (-200 on the over) on Pinnacle. It’s clear that the over is the side you want to be on, but you will introduce more chances of pushing than any other line. These lines should be considered third behind Exact Lines and Favorable Lines. They can be filtered out by creating a filter that says “Push Potential is No”.
How Are Probabilities Calculated For Favorable Lines & Push Potential Lines?
RunGoodProps uses the Poisson Distribution, a mathematical theory, to help assign a probability to lines that do not match up. There will be an icon in the probability column for the props that are being calculated with this method.
What Is This?
RunGoodProps is a simple but powerful dashboard that allows you to quickly see which props are the biggest favorties, in real-time. The tool takes all the props available at various prop sites and compares them to odds from a handful of sportsbooks. This creates a dynamic where we can easily find the props, across all sports, that are most likely to win.
What are prop sites?
Prop sites, like PrizePicks, are fantasy websitess that are based on creating mulit-leg prop entries. The more legs you choose, the more you can win. The payouts range anywhere from 3x to 20x the amount of your entry. Example payouts:
- 2-Leg Power Play: 3x
- 3-Leg Power Play: 5x
- 4-Leg Power Play: 10x
- 5-Leg Flex Play
- 5 Correct: 10x
- 4 Correct: 2x
- 3 Correct 0.4x
What prop sites are supported?
PrizePicks, Underdog, No House Advantage, ParlayPlay and Sleeper with more being added as often as possible.
What sportsbooks are supported?
DraftKings Sportsbook, Fanduel Sportsbook, Caesars, PointsBet and Pinnacle with more being added as often as possible.
How Does RunGoodProps Help?
These prop sites mostly have guaranteed payouts and often treat every prop like it’s 50/50. That’s simply not true. The tool at RunGoodProps allows you to see the props that are the largest favorites, some with a winning liklihood over 60%. Having the true odds be ~60%, but the payouts reflecting a 50% probability, the edge is significantly in your favor. RunGoodProps removes the vigor before calculating the probability to give you a better sense of the “true probability”.
How Do I Use The Tool?
It’s quite simple…
1. Go to the RunGoodProps dashboard and view the biggest favorites.
2. Choose to 2-5 that you like.
3. Enter them on your favorite prop site.
Give Me An Example
Okay. These are (5) real props that have been on the dashboard recently:
- Steph Curry over 3.5 3-Pts Made (-155) | 59.2% probability
- Jose Berrios over 17,5 Pitching Outs (-160) | 57.5% probability
- Jordan Poole over 3.5 Rebounds (-160) | 57.5% probability
- Aaron Ekblad under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150) | 56.9% probability
- Giannis Antetokounmpo over 6.5 Assists (-155) | 56.7% probability
The likelihood of you getting all five correct is 6.31%. The likelihood you getting four correct is 23.29% of the time. The likelihood of you getting three or less correct is 70.39%. Now, because prop sites guarantee their payouts, you’ll actually get paid too much when you hit four of five. Meaning that if you made this exact $100 wager an infinite number of times, you’d expect to profit $25.27 every time you made the wager.
There is no other wager in sports-betting or fantasy where you have a +25.27% expected value.
How can I cancel my membership or get a refund?
You can cancel your account, anytime, by visiting the My Account page. You will see all active memberships under the “Subscriptions” tab and can cancel them on that screen. If you are unhappy with the product, please email ‘Contact Rick’ and I will make it right!
What if I want to change my Credit Card on file?
Head to the My Account page, locate your subscription and click “update”. Clicking that link will allow you to update your payment options with new card details.
I still have questions, what should I do?
Head over to the “contact Rick” page and shoot me a note. That will go straight to my email inbox and I will respond as soon as I can.